Hormuz Partial Reopening and the September Export Rebound
Seven months after the Middle East war began, Middle East crude oil exports have risen to their highest monthly level since hostilities started, and Qatar linked LNG tankers have again been observed crossing the Strait of Hormuz after a blank August. Those are the central facts in late September reporting by Euronews and in Kpler’s media briefing dated 28 September 2026. The rebound is real and measurable. It is also incomplete. Exports remain below the February baseline, Hormuz clearance remains below the pre war average, and diplomacy continues to inject risk into any forecast of a smooth return to normal trade.
The September figures below are those reported by these sources, together with the caveats they attach to the political path ahead. Euronews, publishing on 29 September 2026 and citing preliminary Kpler data, put regional Middle East crude oil exports at 16.3 million barrels a day in September. That was the highest monthly level since the Iran war began seven months earlier. Kpler’s own media briefing of 28 September 2026, using flow data as of 26 September, adds finer resolution.
Total Hormuz Clearance stood at 10,591 thousand barrels a day on 26 September against a 17,133 thousand barrels a day pre war baseline. On one side, Saudi loadings from eastern terminals surged after the East West pipeline was hit. Euronews reports that several Qatar linked LNG tankers crossed Hormuz in September after no visible crossings were recorded in August. Diplomacy risk remains part of the September picture because the sources say so. Euronews reports that United States President Donald Trump on Saturday rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen Hormuz and end the fighting within seven days.
Context from earlier in the year remains essential for judging how far September still has to go. The IEA recorded that Hormuz oil flows averaged only 2.7 million barrels per day in March, April and May, against around 20 million barrels per day prior to the conflict, with cumulative Middle East oil supply losses exceeding 1.3 billion barrels. Over the next quarter, the questions are whether preliminary Kpler clearances revise upward as confirmations land, whether Saudi Petroline throughput climbs from the tested 2.65 million barrels a day toward the 3 to 4 million barrels a day Kpler expected in coming days, and whether Qatari LNG crossings thicken beyond the handful of named September cargoes.
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