LNG Terminals and Data Centers Want the Same Molecules. The Shale Patch Says There Is Enough, for Now

Two of the biggest stories in American energy this year draw on the same resource. Between March and June, three large LNG export projects reached final investment decision: Phase 2 of Venture Global's CP2 LNG on March 13, Caturus's 9.5 million metric ton per year Commonwealth LNG on May 15, and Delfin Midstream's first floating liquefaction vessel on June 3. At the same time, electricity consumption is reaching record levels, driven largely by data centers, and natural gas generates about 40% of the country's power.

Both export terminals and data centers ultimately run on Permian and Haynesville gas. The question is whether there is enough to go around, and at what price. On the evidence of the Energy Information Administration's September Short-Term Energy Outlook, the answer for the next two years is yes. The harder question concerns the end of the decade, when the new export capacity starts up just as data center load approaches its forecast peak. EIA forecasts US electricity sales of 4,135 billion kilowatthours in 2026, an increase of almost 2% over 2025, with a further increase of nearly 2% in 2027.

It attributes the growth to data center development and increased manufacturing in the commercial and industrial sectors. On the export side, LNG exports keep rising through 2027 as recently completed terminals ramp up, including Golden Pass, which shipped its first cargo in April. EIA also notes that commercial sector sales, where most data center consumption is recorded, make up a large part of the growth: the agency expects electricity consumption to total 4,211 billion kilowatthours in 2027.

EIA forecasts marketed natural gas production rising by 4.5 Bcf/d in 2026 and 4.6 Bcf/d in 2027. The three LNG projects that reached FID this year will not export a cargo until around 2030. If the market tightens, LNG buyers and power generators will compete for the same gas at Henry Hub and regional hubs.