Brent under Middle East disruption: EIA STEO prices, shut-ins, and inventory draws

Oil prices are the most visible meter of a Middle East supply shock, and also the easiest to misread. The figures here are published EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook figures as reported by Oil and Gas Journal and Reuters, and to spot levels those outlets attribute to named sessions. Oil and Gas Journal, summarising the EIA's September 2026 STEO, reports that EIA forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices to average about 90 dollars per barrel in the second half of 2026, 8 dollars per barrel higher than in the August outlook.

Brent averaged 91 dollars per barrel in August 2026, up 7 dollars per barrel from July, as constrained Middle East exports led to additional production shut-ins. Reuters coverage of the same STEO on 9 September 2026 stated that EIA raised its oil price forecasts as global stockpiles fell under pressure from lost Middle Eastern supply in the Iran war, with global oil inventories down by about 400 million barrels so far that year and set to drop further through year end.

Physical balances behind the price path are quantified in the OGJ STEO summary. Middle East crude production shut-ins averaged an estimated 6.7 million barrels per day in August 2026, up from 5.0 million barrels per day in July. U.S. supply response in the same STEO summary is gradual, not instantaneous. Spot tape after the STEO cut-off illustrates volatility without replacing the outlook. OPEC+ spare capacity, discussed with IEA figures elsewhere in this series, interacts with prices but does not set them alone.

Brent and WTI outlook levels, shut-in rates, inventory draws, U.S. production forecasts, distillate inventory thresholds, and crack-spread ranges come from EIA via OGJ and Reuters. For governments and firms, the practical use of these numbers is scenario design: a 2026 average near 91 dollars Brent with large Middle East shut-ins and continuing inventory draws; a 2027 path that eases only as exports and shut-in production normalise toward the second quarter and beyond; and prompt spikes above 100 dollars when diplomacy and Hormuz headlines hit the same week as tight distillate stocks.