Europe Can Refill Its Gas Storage Without Panic. The 80 Per Cent Flexibility Is There to Be Used

Europe enters the second half of the 2026 injection season with its gas storage further behind than at any point since the 2022 crisis. ENTSOG's Summer Supply Outlook found that EU storage sites were just 28 per cent full on 1 April, about 314 TWh, lower than at the start of the previous three filling seasons and roughly in line with levels seen before 2022. A colder 2025-26 winter drew heavily on stocks after the season began in October 2025 with storage 83 per cent full.

ENTSOG estimated that Europe would need around 943 TWh of LNG imports, roughly 86 billion cubic metres, between April and September to reach 90 per cent by the end of the summer, with a further 66 TWh needed if remaining Russian pipeline supplies stopped. Damage to part of Qatar's export infrastructure and disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global LNG supply. ACER has estimated that the EU would need about 13 per cent more LNG imports than in 2025 to reach 90 per cent by 1 November.

If member states use the flexibility in the storage regulation and aim for 80 per cent instead, last year's level of LNG imports would be enough. If global LNG supply fell by 20 per cent, European storage would reach only around 76 per cent by the end of September. The European Commission has been careful to stress that the situation bears little resemblance to 2022. The temptation in a tight market is to push for the highest possible storage level as insurance.

The storage regulation was amended to allow precisely this kind of flexibility, so that member states can deviate from the 90 per cent target when market conditions are unfavourable. Europe should also be clear about the limits of what it controls. Europe will enter the winter with less gas in storage than it would like, and prices will remain elevated as long as Gulf exports are disrupted.