Pakistan's LNG Cliff Edge: Gas Allocation After Qatar Supplies Stopped
For most of the past decade, the main complaint about Pakistan's LNG supply was that there was too much of it. As rooftop solar spread and industrial gas demand fell, the country found itself with surplus cargoes under long-term contracts with Qatar and Eni, and the government asked for some deliveries to be diverted or deferred. Before the crisis, Pakistan had cancelled 21 Eni cargoes scheduled for 2026 and 2027. The Hormuz crisis has turned that problem upside down in a matter of weeks.
Senior officials told the Senate Standing Committee on Petroleum on 16 March that Qatari LNG imports had been suspended since 2 March, after the war involving Iran disrupted shipping in the Gulf. Only two of the eight cargoes scheduled for March arrived, and officials said that the six cargoes expected in April were unlikely to be delivered. Qatar has been Pakistan's anchor LNG supplier since 2016, delivering under long-term contracts at prices linked to oil, which officials told the committee worked out at around USD 9 per unit.
Officials said supply to the power sector had been cut from 300 to 130 million cubic feet a day, and gas to a fertiliser plant had been reduced by half, while domestic consumers were being protected. LNG supplies nearly a quarter of Pakistan's electricity in a normal year, but the power system has more room to adjust than in previous crises. Energy Minister Awais Leghari told the committee that growing reliance on domestic sources, including solar, wind, nuclear, coal and hydropower, has reduced exposure to LNG disruption.
The real test will come in May and June, when air conditioning drives demand to its annual peak. If LNG is still scarce, the power sector will need to run Thar coal plants, nuclear units and hydropower at maximum output, and manage demand carefully in the evening, when solar output falls. Pakistan has a gas allocation policy that sets priorities among sectors, but in practice decisions in a crisis are often made week by week, with little public explanation. Pakistan has handled the first weeks of the LNG disruption reasonably well, protecting households and leaning on its domestic generation.