A 172-Million-Barrel SPR Release Cannot Replace Hormuz. What It Can and Cannot Do for US Gasoline Prices
On March 11, 2026, the International Energy Agency announced that its member countries would make 400 million barrels of oil available from emergency stocks, the largest coordinated release in the agency's history. The Trump administration confirmed the same day that the United States would contribute 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with deliveries rolling out over 120 days. The decision marked a reversal for a president who had criticized his predecessor for tapping the reserve and who had initially said that US supplies were ample after the war with Iran began on February 28.
By March 20, the national average price of gasoline was nearing USD 4 a gallon, according to CBS News, up from about USD 3.60 on March 12 and well above prewar levels. Before the war, around 20 million barrels a day of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz, about one fifth of world consumption. The IEA estimates that Gulf producers have cut output by about 10 million barrels a day because they cannot ship their crude and are running out of storage.
The total IEA release of 400 million barrels is equivalent to about 20 days of normal Hormuz flows. Gasoline prices respond to crude prices with a lag, because refiners buy crude in advance and retailers adjust prices as their inventories turn over. Diesel and jet fuel have been hit harder than gasoline in many markets, because the Middle East is a major exporter of middle distillates. Each of these measures adds a small amount of supply or reduces costs at the margin.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the United States has arranged to replace about 200 million barrels of reserve oil within the next year. The United States is now a net exporter of petroleum, and higher prices will encourage domestic producers to increase output. For planning purposes, businesses should assume that fuel prices will remain elevated for as long as Hormuz traffic is disrupted, and that relief will come with a lag once it resumes. Ground News, which aggregates ratings from AllSides, Ad Fontes Media and Media Bias/Fact Check, classes the outlets covering this story as 21% left-leaning, 58% center and 21% right-leaning (24 sources, 67 sources and 24 sources respectively, excluding outlets without a bias rating).