China's 15th Five-Year Plan: A 17 Per Cent Carbon Intensity Target on a New Yardstick
China published the final text of its 15th Five-Year Plan on 13 March 2026, after the National People's Congress session that ran from 4 to 12 March. The plan covers 2026 to 2030, the years in which China has pledged to peak its carbon dioxide emissions. Its binding green indicators are a 17 per cent cut in CO2 emissions per unit of GDP over the five years, and a rise in the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption to 25 per cent by 2030, from 21.7 per cent in 2025.
A binding target for comprehensive energy production capacity, rising from 5.13 billion to 5.8 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent, sits under the heading of security. The 14th plan set an 18 per cent carbon intensity reduction for 2021 to 2025. According to Carbon Brief's analysis of the new plan, the government now reports that it achieved 17.7 per cent. Myllyvirta tells Carbon Brief that a 17 per cent cut on the new basis leaves room for total emissions to rise by 3 to 6 per cent over the five years, whereas the original methodology would have required a fall of around 2 per cent by 2030.
Policymakers had said that a dual-control system for carbon, combining intensity targets with a cap on total emissions, would come into effect during the 15th plan period. The plan calls for a new energy system that is clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient by 2030, with continued additions of wind, solar, hydro and nuclear. The plan promotes the peaking of coal and oil consumption without a timeline and calls for the clean and efficient use of coal.
The coal language confirms what the investment data have shown for three years. For international commodity markets, the plan suggests that Chinese coal demand will plateau rather than fall sharply before 2030, and that domestic oil production will be defended. For China's trading partners, the emphasis on clean technology as a global public good and on south-south cooperation means China will continue to export solar, batteries and electric vehicles at scale. The 15th Five-Year Plan sets climate targets that China can meet with room to spare, by changing the yardstick for carbon intensity and deferring an emissions cap.