China's 2025 Power Data: Wind and Solar Pass Thermal Capacity, and the Curtailment Bill Arrives

The National Energy Administration's year-end figures for 2025 mark the second capacity crossover in eighteen months. In mid-2024 wind and solar capacity overtook coal. By the end of 2025, according to the NEA's release of 12 February 2026, combined grid-connected wind and solar capacity reached 1,840 GW, 47.3 per cent of the national fleet, and for the first time exceeded all thermal capacity. China added more than 430 GW of wind and solar during the year, 120 GW of wind and 318 GW of solar, a 22 per cent increase on 2024 and another record.

The NEA's annual statistics, published on 29 January, put total generating capacity at about 3,890 GW, up 16.1 per cent. Solar capacity reached about 1,200 GW, up 35.4 per cent, and wind about 640 GW, up 22.9 per cent. Wind additions of about 120 GW were the largest on record and well above 2024's roughly 80 GW. The shift towards wind is what the new pricing framework would predict. Under market exposure, wind's more even output profile earns higher average prices than solar's midday output.

A 47.3 per cent share of capacity producing 22 per cent of electricity is not in itself a problem. Solar plants in China typically run around a sixth of the hours in a year at full output equivalent, and wind plants around a quarter. If utilisation of wind and solar falls because the grid cannot absorb their output, every new gigawatt contributes less energy and displaces less coal. Most coal generation is still sold under annual contracts with fixed prices and volumes.

The 15th Five-Year Plan, covering 2026 to 2030, will be adopted at the National People's Congress in March. Spot markets in every province, with coal plants paid for flexibility and energy at market prices, would allow the system to use renewable output that is currently wasted. China's 2025 power statistics confirm that the country can build clean capacity at a pace that no one forecast five years ago.