PJM's 2026 Forecast Cuts the Near Term and Raises the Ceiling: Data Centers Now Have to Prove They Are Real
PJM Interconnection's 2026 long-term load forecast does something that few forecasts in the data center era have done. It lowers expected demand for the next five years. The grid operator now projects summer peak load in 2027 about 2.3% lower than it did a year ago, roughly 3,700 MW, and 2029 about 2.7% lower, around 4,600 MW. Then the curve bends back up. By 2040 the new forecast sits 7.8% above last year's, an extra 18,600 MW or so.
The 20-year annualized growth rate for summer peak rises from 2.0% to 2.4%. The January presentation to PJM's Load Analysis Subcommittee sets out the new filters. PJM went through utility submissions and identified projects that had an Electric Service Agreement or a Construction Contract in place. Two further adjustments follow from what PJM learned about how data centers actually come online. The grid operator also tried to stop counting the same load twice. In zones where data centers already operate, PJM removes monthly data center consumption from the commercial sector data it gets from the Energy Information Administration, and strips hourly data center load from the historical series used to estimate its model.
The report lists which zones received data center adjustments: AEP, ATSI, APS, BGE, ComEd, Dayton, Duquesne, JCP&L, Met-Ed, PECO, Pepco, PPL, PSE&G and Dominion. Dominion's adjustment also covers a voltage optimization program, and PSE&G's covers port electrification, but the common factor across the list is data centers. A year ago PJM projected summer peak of 209,923 MW in 2035, a ten-year increase of 55,779 MW, with ten-year annual growth of 3.1%. PJM's auctions procure capacity three years ahead, and the reliability requirement in each auction is built from the load forecast.
Load in the late 2030s does not affect any auction that has been scheduled, but it does feed transmission planning and the long-term regional plans that PJM must now prepare under federal rules. PJM projects winter peak growing 4.0% a year over the next decade, faster than summer, reaching 204,650 MW in 2035/2036, a ten-year increase of 66,980 MW. The first is how many non-firm projects convert to firm over the next year, because conversions will drive the 2027 forecast. The overall message is that PJM still expects data centers to reshape its system, but it now wants contractual evidence before customers pay for the capacity to serve them.