Congo's Cobalt Quotas Turn a Price Shock Into a Policy. The Risk Is Pushing Buyers to Substitute

On 16 October 2025 the Democratic Republic of Congo lifted the cobalt export ban it had imposed in February and replaced it with a quota system administered by ARECOMS, the authority that regulates and controls strategic mineral markets. Exports for the final quarter of 2025 were capped at 18,125 tonnes. For 2026 and 2027 the cap is 96,600 tonnes a year, made up of a base quota of 87,000 tonnes allocated to producers, largely on the basis of their historical exports, and a strategic quota of 9,600 tonnes held by ARECOMS.

Under the rules, unused monthly quotas are forfeited and moved to the strategic reserve. Congo accounts for more than 70 per cent of world cobalt supply, and the ban, first imposed on 22 February 2025 and extended by three months in June, more than doubled the price of cobalt hydroxide, the intermediate product most Congolese mines export. The quota regime is designed to lock in a higher price by limiting supply rather than cutting it off.

Cobalt prices fell steeply through 2023 and 2024 as output rose, particularly from large Chinese-owned copper and cobalt operations in Congo. From Kinshasa's perspective, a country that supplies most of the world's cobalt should not be a price taker. The allocation of quotas based on historical exports favours established producers, and the largest of those are Chinese-owned. CMOC, which operates major mines including Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu, and Glencore are the dominant producers. Reuters reported in late October that producers were still waiting for export approvals after the quota system began, which means the transition from ban to quota has, in practice, extended the period of very limited exports.

Our view is that Congo would gain more from using its leverage to capture more of the value chain than from controlling export volumes alone. ARECOMS has signalled flexibility, saying it may adjust quotas if the market needs rebalancing.