China's First Absolute Target: Net Emissions 7% to 10% Below Peak by 2035, With 3,600 GW of Wind and Solar
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced China's 2035 nationally determined contribution in video remarks to the UN Climate Summit in New York on 24 September 2025. It is the first time China has set an absolute emissions reduction target for its whole economy, rather than targets for carbon intensity or the timing of a peak. Xi said the targets represent China's best efforts based on the requirements of the Paris Agreement, and that meeting them requires both China's own efforts and a supportive and open international environment.
The 7% to 10% range is measured from China's peak emissions, not from a fixed base year. Several independent analyses have suggested that China's carbon dioxide emissions may already have plateaued or begun to fall, as wind, solar, hydro and nuclear generation have met most of the growth in electricity demand. The target covers all greenhouse gases on a net basis, including methane and other gases, and accounts for removals by forests. The aim of 3,600 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2035 is very large in absolute terms.
For equipment markets, the target sustains demand for Chinese solar panels, wind turbines and batteries, which already dominate global supply. The target of over 30% non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption by 2035 extends China's existing 2030 target for the non-fossil share. For coal, the NDC implies a declining role over the decade, though China continues to approve and build new coal plants, which the government describes as necessary for grid reliability. For oil, the target that new energy vehicles become mainstream in new car sales reinforces a trend already under way.
The NDC confirms that China will expand its national carbon market to cover major high-emission sectors. The announcement came at a UN summit convened ahead of COP30 in Belém, with the United States absent from the climate discussions after announcing its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.