Africa's Solar Import Surge Is Happening Behind the Meter, and Utilities Are Not Ready for It

Ember's analysis of Chinese customs data, published in late August 2025, provides the clearest evidence yet that solar is taking off across Africa. Imports of solar panels from China rose 60 per cent in the 12 months to June 2025, to 15,032 MW, from 9,379 MW in the previous 12 months. More striking is where the growth happened. Outside South Africa, imports nearly tripled over two years, from 3,734 MW in the year to June 2023 to 11,248 MW in the year to June 2025.

Twenty countries set new import records, and 25 countries imported at least 100 MW, up from 15 a year earlier. Nigeria overtook Egypt to become the second-largest importer after South Africa, and Algeria rose to third after a 33-fold increase. The Ember report is careful about what the data can and cannot show. Ember's initial analysis suggests that the growth is driven more by distributed solar than by utility-scale projects. Its review of satellite data found that most announced utility projects had not started construction, and TransitionZero's satellite tracking identified only one new African utility project outside South Africa in 2025 up to August.

Many African countries share the conditions that drove Pakistan's solar boom: unreliable grid supply, high and rising tariffs, expensive diesel and access to very cheap Chinese modules. Ember notes that Pakistan imported more solar panels in the year to June 2025 than the whole of Africa, despite having about a sixth of the population. Their best-paying customers, commercial and industrial users and wealthier urban households, are exactly the ones most able to install solar. Ember's central message is that better tracking is urgently needed, and we agree.

Utilities should move towards tariffs that recover fixed network costs more fairly, without punishing solar adopters so harshly that they leave the grid altogether. Solar is most valuable when it is paired with batteries that shift supply into the evening. The surge in solar imports is the most important energy development in Africa that most policymakers are not yet tracking.