The Transmission Investment Gap as United States Load Growth Reappears

Electricity demand growth has returned to the United States planning conversation. EIA's January 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook press materials described 2 percent demand growth in 2024 and similar growth expected in 2025 and 2026, the first three-year stretch since 2005 to 2007, with industrial and data-centre commercial loads leading. Transmission that was sized for a flat-load era will congest sooner. Interconnection studies assign expensive network upgrades to clusters because the backbone was never built. Order No. 1920's ex ante allocation mandate and the expanded state role under Orders No. 1920-A and 1920-B exist because late fights kill lines.

States that want economic development from data centres must also face transmission cost responsibility. EIA's February 2025 inventory planned 12.3 gigawatts of 2025 retirements, including 8.1 gigawatts of coal. Making the transition add up requires wires that match where electrons will be generated and consumed.