The Yarlung Tsangpo Cascade: China's 1.2 Trillion Yuan Bet on Firm Clean Power

On 19 July 2025 Premier Li Qiang announced the start of construction of the hydropower project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo, the river known downstream in India as the Brahmaputra. The groundbreaking took place at the dam site of the Mainling hydropower station in Nyingchi, in the Xizang Autonomous Region. Xinhua reported that the project will consist of five cascade hydropower stations with an estimated total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan, roughly 167.8 billion US dollars, and will primarily deliver electricity for consumption outside the region while also meeting local demand.

A new state company, China Yajiang Group, has been created to build and operate it. Xinhua confirms five cascade stations, the 1.2 trillion yuan investment estimate, and the primary purpose of exporting power from Xizang. The government has not published a full capacity figure or an environmental impact assessment in the public domain. That absence is itself significant, and it is the main reason downstream governments are uneasy. The National Energy Administration reported that wind and solar capacity passed coal capacity in mid-2024, and that solar alone passed 1 TW in May 2025.

Coal currently fills that role, and China continues to build coal plants partly for that reason. The lower Yarlung Tsangpo runs through some of the most tectonically active terrain on earth, near the eastern syntaxis of the Himalaya. The Brahmaputra is a major river for north-eastern India and for Bangladesh. India and China have had expert-level arrangements for sharing hydrological data during flood seasons, but these are limited in scope and have been interrupted during periods of political tension.

The Yarlung Tsangpo cascade is a rational investment from the perspective of China's power system. The downstream risks are not a reason for China to abandon the project, but they are a reason to change how it is governed.