93 GW in a Month: What China's Pre-Deadline Solar Rush Says About the Second Half

The National Energy Administration's statistics for January to May 2025, released on 23 June, contain a figure without precedent in any power market. China connected 92.92 GW of solar capacity in May alone. That was 388 per cent more than in May 2024, when 19.04 GW was added, and more than double April's total. Over the first five months of the year China added 197.85 GW of solar, up 150 per cent year on year, and cumulative solar capacity passed 1 TW, reaching about 1,084 GW.

Under the February 2025 pricing reform, Fagai Jiage [2025] No. 136, projects connected before 1 June keep existing-project treatment, while those connected later must compete for a mechanism price and take on market exposure. PV Tech's breakdown of the NEA release shows total generating capacity of 3.61 TW at the end of May, up 18.8 per cent year on year. Solar was up 56.9 per cent and wind up 23.1 per cent to about 570 GW.

First, a utilisation fall of more than 10 per cent in a single year is large. Connecting 93 GW of solar in a month is a logistical feat. It also places enormous midday output on networks that were already saturated in some provinces. The national statistics do not yet show a collapse in utilisation of renewables, and the authorities have committed to supporting the absorption of more than 200 GW a year of new renewable capacity through 2027 while keeping the utilisation rate at or above 90 per cent.

The pull-forward means that June and the months after it will look weak by comparison. China's solar manufacturing base has spent two years in a price war. The NEA's data for the remainder of 2025 should show this shift in the composition of new connections. The May 2025 solar figure is best read as a policy artefact.