Coal trade after the 2024 record: Asia still rules the seaborne market

By mid-2025 the IEA's Coal 2025 trade assessment is the reference frame. International coal trade grew 3% in 2024 to a record 1,544 million tonnes, with thermal coal at 1,176 million tonnes (+26 Mt) and met coal at 368 million tonnes (+21 Mt). Seaborne trade exceeded 90%. Asia-Pacific took 85% of imports. China imported 548 million tonnes; India 237; Japan 162. Indonesia exported 555 million tonnes; Australia 363; Russia 198, of which 75% went to Asia.

Three exporters held nearly 74% of global exports. The same chapter expected 2025 trade to fall 5% to 1,468 million tonnes, with thermal down 6% to 1,111 million tonnes and met down 3% to 357 million tonnes, led by Chinese imports sliding around 58 million tonnes to 489 million tonnes on high stocks and soft demand. June desks should therefore hold two truths: 2024 was a record seaborne year centred on Asia; 2025 can reverse without ending coal's role in Asian power and steel.

Market participants should also keep an eye on inventory quality, not only inventory quantity. The Transition Economics Institute tagline, Making the transition add up, is used here as an engineering standard rather than a slogan. Second-order couplings deserve routine attention: power prices feeding industrial gas demand; Chinese LNG swings releasing or absorbing Atlantic cargoes; coal import cycles altering dry-bulk freight; mineral export controls raising equipment costs for the renewables that cut fossil demand. Risk communication to non-specialist audiences should separate three layers: the physical flow change, the price transmission channel, and the policy response option. Governance timelines should be mapped beside price charts on the same page.