One Billion Tonnes: India's Coal Milestone Is a Security Achievement and a Planning Warning

India produced more than one billion tonnes of coal in a financial year for the first time in 2024-25. The Ministry of Coal reported that output crossed the mark on 20 March 2025 and reached 1,047.57 million tonnes on a provisional basis for the year, up 4.99 per cent from 997.83 million tonnes in 2023-24. Dispatch also crossed one billion tonnes, at 1,024.99 million tonnes, up 5.34 per cent. Production from commercial and captive mines rose 28.11 per cent to 197.50 million tonnes.

The government presents the milestone, accurately, as a gain for energy security. The ministry notes that coal imports fell 8.4 per cent to 183.42 million tonnes in April to December 2024, saving 5.43 billion US dollars in foreign exchange, and that imports for blending by thermal power plants fell 29.8 per cent even as coal-based generation rose 3.53 per cent. Our view is that the billion-tonne mark settles one debate and opens another. It settles the question of whether India can produce enough domestic coal to keep its power plants supplied, which was in doubt during the shortages of 2021 and 2022.

Coal India and its subsidiaries remain the core of production, but the fastest growth has come from commercial and captive mines allocated through auctions since 2020. A 28 per cent rise in output from those mines in a single year shows that the auction regime is delivering. Lower imports are a genuine saving, especially in the power sector, where blending imports fell by almost 30 per cent. The ministry projects that coal-based thermal power will remain essential, with its share of generation at 55 per cent by 2030 and 27 per cent by 2047.

The difficulty is that a 27 per cent share by 2047 implies a very different coal system from one built to produce more than a billion tonnes a year. The ministry counts around five lakh mine workers across more than 350 mines, and more than 239,000 employees at Coal India alone.