China's LNG Recovery Stalls Short of the Record as Pipelines and Power Change the Gas Equation

China imported 76.65 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas in 2024, according to the General Administration of Customs. That was up 7.7 per cent on 71.32 million tonnes in 2023, enough for China to remain the world's largest LNG importer, but still short of the 2021 peak of about 78.9 million tonnes. Two years after a 2022 collapse in Chinese LNG buying, imports have recovered most of the lost ground without breaking new records. The marginal tonne of LNG into China now competes with pipeline gas that is cheaper and contracted, with domestic production that keeps rising, and with a power sector that is adding clean capacity at a pace that limits the role of gas in generation.

The most important change on the supply side in 2024 was the Power of Siberia pipeline. Interfax reported that Gazprom's exports to China through the line reached the full design capacity of 38 billion cubic metres a year in December 2024, ahead of schedule. China's electricity data for 2024, published by the National Energy Administration on 21 January 2025, show why gas struggles to win share in power. Electricity consumption grew faster than generation, at 6.8 per cent to 9,852 TWh, and was led by services and households.

The structural demand for LNG in China comes from coastal city gas distribution, industry in provinces far from pipeline supply, and peak-season heating. Several large liquefaction projects in the United States, Qatar and elsewhere are scheduled to start in 2025 and 2026. For 2025 we see three factors that point to subdued Chinese LNG growth. China's LNG imports in 2024 show recovery but not renewed growth, and the reasons are structural: pipeline gas at full capacity, domestic production rising, and a power sector in which clean generation meets most incremental demand.

For exporters, the implication is that China will take more LNG in a low-price world and less in a high-price one, which makes it a stabiliser for the global market rather than a guaranteed sink.