Rooftop Solar’s Boom Is a Grid Pricing Problem in Disguise

Pakistan’s rooftop solar surge did not begin in a seminar room. It began on factory roofs and middle-class terraces when retail tariffs climbed and Chinese panels got cheap. Net metering, introduced in 2015, let prosumers offset grid imports with daytime exports. For early adopters the payback looked excellent. For DISCOs and for non-solar consumers, the boom increasingly looked like a fixed-cost shift: capacity payments and network charges still had to be paid, while volumetric sales to solvent customers fell.

Officials spoke of moving from net metering toward net billing, cutting buyback rates, and limiting system size relative to sanctioned load. Transition Economics Institute argues for a staged glide path: grandfather existing licensed net-metered systems for a defined contractual term; set new buyback rates nearer to avoided cost or NAEPP; introduce fixed network charges that recover capacity costs fairly; and couple the package with storage incentives so evening peaks can be shaved. Factories reducing load through solar can improve export competitiveness and ease evening peaks if paired with demand management.

Data quality on installed distributed capacity remains contested, with import-based estimates sometimes challenged in parliamentary forums. NEPRA, the Power Division, CPPA-G, the system operator, and the DISCOs each hold a piece of the puzzle, yet none owns the full cash-conversion cycle.