The war that closed the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February 2026 sent gas prices in Asia and Europe to their highest levels since the 2022 crisis. In the United States, gas got cheaper. That divergence has turned into one of the largest structural advantages the US has ever had in powering data centers, and it is now colliding with a second trend: the wave of new US LNG export capacity that will draw on the same gas.
The price gap
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in its third-quarter Gas Market Report that spot LNG prices in Asia averaged $17.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the second quarter of 2026, up 45% from a year earlier. Europe's TTF benchmark averaged near $16/MMBtu, up 32%. Both were the highest second-quarter averages since 2022.
Henry Hub, the US benchmark, moved the other way. Daily spot prices published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis averaged $2.77/MMBtu in April 2026, $2.94 in May and $3.14 in June, for a second-quarter average of about $2.95. That was below the 2025 average of about $3.52. In September 2026, Henry Hub averaged about $2.95.
The reason is that the US is insulated from the physical shock. It produces more gas than it uses, its LNG export plants were already running near capacity, and production kept rising. EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts US marketed gas production growing by 4.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026 and 4.6 Bcf/d in 2027, with the Permian and Haynesville regions accounting for more than 70% of growth. EIA expects US working gas inventories to reach 3,969 billion cubic feet on October 31, 5% above the five-year average.
What the gap means for power costs
Fuel is the largest variable cost of gas-fired electricity. EIA data show the average operating heat rate of US gas-fired plants in the utility and independent power sectors was 7,754 Btu per kWh in 2024. At that efficiency, a gas price of $2.95/MMBtu translates into a fuel cost of about $23 per MWh. At the Asian second-quarter average of $17.50, the same plant would face a fuel cost of about $136 per MWh. At the European level of about $16, it would be about $124 per MWh.
These are illustrative calculations that leave out carbon costs, transport and plant-specific factors. But they show the scale of the gap. For a 100 MW data center running around the clock, the difference between $23 and $136 per MWh in fuel cost alone is roughly $99 million a year.
That is not a hypothetical concern for operators in gas-importing markets. Singapore's overall electricity tariff rose 17.5% for July to September 2026, reflecting gas prices during the second quarter. Taiwan was buying spot LNG at more than double the price of its long-term contracts. In the US, by contrast, the main pressure on power costs for data centers came from capacity markets and grid build-out, not fuel.
Where the gas goes next
EIA's STEO forecasts record electricity consumption, "driven by data center development and increased manufacturing activity in the commercial and industrial sectors." It expects US electricity sales of 4,135 billion kWh in 2026, up almost 2%, and 4,211 billion kWh in 2027. Commercial sector sales, which include most data centers, rise 3.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027. EIA expects gas-fired generation to rise 2% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, and PJM Interconnection to account for nearly 45% of the growth in total US generation.
At the same time, the Hormuz crisis accelerated a new round of US LNG investment. Since March 2026, three large projects have reached final investment decision: Phase 2 of Venture Global's CP2 LNG on March 13, Caturus's Commonwealth LNG on May 15 and Delfin's first floating LNG vessel on June 3. The IEA says CP2 will have peak capacity of 40 billion cubic meters a year once Phase 2 begins commercial operation in the second half of 2030, with Delfin's vessel (6 bcm a year) and Commonwealth (13 bcm a year) also due in 2030.
Those plants will compete with power generators, including those serving data centers, for Gulf Coast and Permian gas. For now, the supply response is keeping pace. Energy Transfer's Hugh Brinson pipeline, which originates in the Permian, began interstate shipments in June, earlier than EIA had expected, and will ramp up through early 2027.
The risk to the advantage
Henry Hub is low partly because US production has outrun demand growth this year, helped by a mild first quarter that reduced gas use in buildings, according to the IEA. Several factors could narrow the gap.
The first is LNG feedgas. As export capacity grows, more US gas will be priced, at the margin, against international markets. The FID projects come online in 2030 and 2031, but plants already under construction add demand sooner.
The IEA estimates cumulative LNG supply losses of around 140 billion cubic meters between 2026 and 2030 because of the Gulf disruption and damage at Qatar's Ras Laffan, which means international buyers will keep bidding for US cargoes for years.
The second is power demand itself. If data center load arrives as fast as utilities forecast, gas burn in the power sector will rise faster than EIA's base case.
The third is weather. Henry Hub averaged $7.72 in January 2026, according to the FRED data, showing how quickly a cold snap can lift prices even in a well-supplied market.
What it means for siting
The gas price gap reinforces trends already visible in where AI capacity is being built. Developers are seeking sites near gas supply in Texas, Louisiana, Pennsylvania and Ohio, and several large campuses plan on-site gas generation. For hyperscalers comparing a US campus with one in Japan, Singapore or Europe, the fuel cost difference is now large enough to outweigh many other factors, provided grid connections can be secured.
The irony is that the same crisis that hurt data center economics in gas-importing countries is also driving investment in the LNG plants that will, over time, link US gas prices more closely to the rest of the world.