The UN climate secretariat published its 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions Synthesis Report on 28 October, two weeks before COP30 opens in Belém. The report assesses the new national climate plans, covering targets for 2035, that parties to the Paris Agreement had formally submitted by 30 September.
Its coverage is limited. According to the UNFCCC, the report synthesises 64 new NDCs, representing about 30% of global emissions in 2019. On that set alone, the plans imply emissions about 17% below 2019 levels by 2035 for the countries concerned.
To give a wider view, the secretariat carried out additional calculations that also capture new NDCs and targets submitted or announced up to the report's publication, including those announced at the UN Secretary-General's Climate Summit in New York in September. That wider picture, which the executive secretary, Simon Stiell, described as still incomplete, shows global emissions falling by around 10% by 2035 from 2019 levels.
What the report says about quality
Stiell said the new generation of NDCs showed a step change in quality, credibility and economic breadth. According to the report, 88% of countries said their NDC was informed by the outcomes of the 2023 global stocktake, and 89% contain economy-wide targets. Almost three-quarters, 73%, include adaptation components, and countries, particularly small island developing states, are increasingly integrating loss and damage. The secretariat said the submitted NDCs are broadly consistent with a linear trajectory from 2030 targets to long-term net zero goals.
Stiell also said that humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, while adding that progress is still far too slow. He cautioned against drawing global conclusions from a report that covers a limited share of emissions.
Who is in and who is out
The submissions included in the core synthesis come from countries that filed by 30 September. The wider estimate includes China's 2035 target, announced by President Xi Jinping on 24 September, to cut economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels. Because China accounts for the largest share of global emissions, its target has a large effect on the global estimate even though it had not been formally submitted by the cut-off.
The European Union had not submitted its NDC by the cut-off, as member states were still negotiating the 2040 climate target from which the 2035 figure is to be derived. India had also not submitted. The United States submitted an NDC in December 2024 under the previous administration but has since announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, which takes effect in January 2026.
Why the numbers differ from other assessments
The UNFCCC's figures differ from those produced by other organisations because of differences in coverage, baseline years and methods. The UN Environment Programme's annual Emissions Gap Report, due in early November, will provide an independent assessment that translates the pledges into projected warming. Independent research groups such as Climate Action Tracker produce their own estimates.
A 10% reduction from 2019 levels by 2035 is well short of the cuts that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change associates with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. The global stocktake at COP28 noted that limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot requires cuts of 60% from 2019 levels by 2035. The synthesis report shows the direction of travel has improved, but the gap to those pathways remains wide.
Implications for energy markets
For energy markets, the synthesis report is a summary of signals rather than a forecast. The main drivers of fossil fuel demand over the next decade will be the domestic policies and investment decisions of the largest consumers, particularly China, India, the United States and the EU, rather than the aggregate of pledges.
Even so, the NDCs feed into the scenarios that energy companies, banks and agencies use. A widely cited 10% cut by 2035 is broadly consistent with a world in which oil and coal demand plateau and begin to decline over the decade, while gas demand varies by region. The International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook, due in November, will set out its own scenarios.
The NDCs also show a growing emphasis on power sector targets. Many include goals for renewable capacity, coal phase-down or grid investment, which connect directly to electricity markets and to demand for equipment such as solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and transformers.
Article 6 and carbon markets
The report also notes that new NDCs increasingly include elements on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which governs international carbon markets. Article 6.2 allows countries to transfer mitigation outcomes bilaterally, and Article 6.4 sets up a UN-supervised crediting mechanism whose rules were finalised at COP29. Several countries plan to use international transfers to meet part of their targets, either as buyers or as sellers. Japan, Singapore and Switzerland have signed bilateral agreements with host countries, and the European Commission has proposed allowing limited use of international credits toward the EU's 2040 target from 2036.
For energy projects in developing countries, Article 6 can provide an additional revenue stream, for example for renewable generation, methane capture or efficient cookstoves, if the host government authorises the transfer of the resulting credits. The volume of such transactions remains small, but it is growing.
Just transition and coal
Many of the new NDCs include language on a just transition, the management of social and economic effects on workers and regions that depend on fossil fuel industries. That is particularly relevant for coal-producing regions in South Africa, Indonesia, India and Eastern Europe. Coal phase-down plans that include support for affected communities are more likely to be implemented, which affects the reliability of NDC targets as signals for coal demand.
Adaptation and finance
The high share of NDCs with adaptation components reflects the growing focus on climate impacts, including heat, drought, floods and storms, which affect energy infrastructure as well as communities. Many developing country NDCs make part of their targets conditional on international finance. The collective finance goal agreed at COP29 in Baku, at least $300 billion a year by 2035 from developed countries, will be a central topic in Belém, along with a roadmap toward a broader goal of $1.3 trillion a year from all sources.
What to watch
The UNFCCC has said it will update its analysis to include NDCs submitted after the cut-off. At COP30, negotiators will consider how to respond to the gap between pledges and the Paris goals. Key outcomes to watch include any decision on a response to the NDC synthesis, progress on adaptation indicators, and the finance roadmap. For energy markets, the formal submission of the EU's and India's NDCs, and the details of China's, will matter more than the aggregate figure.