Chinese President Xi Jinping announced China's 2035 nationally determined contribution in video remarks to the UN Climate Summit in New York on 24 September 2025. It is the first time China has set an absolute emissions reduction target for its whole economy, rather than targets for carbon intensity or the timing of a peak.
According to Xinhua, the targets are as follows. By 2035 China will reduce economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels, striving to do better. It will raise the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to over 30%. It will expand installed wind and solar capacity to over six times 2020 levels, striving to reach a total of 3,600 gigawatts. It will raise total forest stock volume to over 24 billion cubic metres, make new energy vehicles the mainstream in new vehicle sales, expand the national carbon emissions trading market to cover major high-emission sectors, and basically establish a climate-adaptive society.
Xi said the targets represent China's best efforts based on the requirements of the Paris Agreement, and that meeting them requires both China's own efforts and a supportive and open international environment.
What the headline target means
The 7% to 10% range is measured from China's peak emissions, not from a fixed base year. China has pledged to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 but has not said in which year it expects the peak or at what level. The target therefore depends on when emissions peak and how high they go, two numbers that will only be known in hindsight.
Several independent analyses have suggested that China's carbon dioxide emissions may already have plateaued or begun to fall, as wind, solar, hydro and nuclear generation have met most of the growth in electricity demand. If the peak occurred around 2024 or 2025, a 7% to 10% cut by 2035 would imply a relatively gradual decline over the following decade. Some analysts have described the target as cautious relative to the pace of China's clean energy build-out. Others note that the "striving to do better" language leaves room for over-achievement.
The target covers all greenhouse gases on a net basis, including methane and other gases, and accounts for removals by forests. That is broader than China's previous targets, which focused on carbon dioxide.
The wind and solar target
The aim of 3,600 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2035 is very large in absolute terms. China's previous target for wind and solar capacity by 2030 was reached in 2024, six years early. Installations in 2024 and the first half of 2025 ran at record levels. A target of over six times 2020 levels implies continued high annual additions over the next decade, though potentially at a slower pace than the recent peak years.
For equipment markets, the target sustains demand for Chinese solar panels, wind turbines and batteries, which already dominate global supply. For China's power grid, integrating that much variable generation requires large investment in transmission, storage and flexible generation, including pumped hydro, batteries and coal plants operating more flexibly.
Non-fossil share
The target of over 30% non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption by 2035 extends China's existing 2030 target for the non-fossil share. Non-fossil fuels include wind, solar, hydro, nuclear and biomass. Because coal, oil and gas still dominate industry, heating and transport, raising the non-fossil share depends on electrifying those sectors as well as decarbonising power.
Coal, oil and gas implications
For coal, the NDC implies a declining role over the decade, though China continues to approve and build new coal plants, which the government describes as necessary for grid reliability. Running hours for coal plants are likely to fall as clean generation grows, even if installed coal capacity remains high.
For oil, the target that new energy vehicles become mainstream in new car sales reinforces a trend already under way. Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles already account for a large and growing share of new car sales in China. China's gasoline demand appears to have peaked, according to Chinese oil companies, and diesel demand is being affected by the growth of LNG-fuelled and electric trucks.
For gas, the picture is mixed. Gas is used for power, industry and heating, and China has signed long-term LNG contracts that run well past 2035. A declining emissions trajectory would cap gas demand growth over time, but gas may continue to grow in some uses as it replaces coal.
The carbon market
The NDC confirms that China will expand its national carbon market to cover major high-emission sectors. In March 2025 the market was extended from power to steel, cement and aluminium smelting. A roadmap published in August calls for absolute caps in some sectors by 2027 and a cap-and-trade system by 2030.
International reaction
The announcement came at a UN summit convened ahead of COP30 in Belém, with the United States absent from the climate discussions after announcing its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Climate analysts have noted that China's track record of exceeding its targets, such as the early achievement of its wind and solar goal, makes the actual outcome likely to be at or beyond the upper end of the range.
Adaptation
The commitment to basically establish a climate-adaptive society by 2035 reflects China's own exposure to climate hazards. Recent years have brought severe heatwaves that pushed power demand to records in eastern and southern provinces, droughts that cut hydropower in Sichuan and Yunnan and forced industrial power rationing, and floods in northern and central China. For the energy system, adaptation means planning for higher peak loads in summer, more variable hydro output and greater resilience in transmission and distribution networks. The inclusion of adaptation in the NDC signals that these issues will feature in energy planning alongside emissions targets.
What to watch
China is expected to submit the NDC formally to the UNFCCC before COP30. The 15th Five-Year Plan, covering 2026 to 2030, will set more detailed targets for energy intensity, carbon intensity and the energy mix, and will show how the 2035 goals are translated into near-term policy. Monthly data on power generation and emissions will indicate whether China's emissions have peaked.